PRESIDENT OBAMA ON IRAN DEAL 7/30/15
RE: Iran nuclear deal and stakes involved
IN 2008, 2012, the President came from these basic principles and promises:
1) Important to end the War: But also to end the mindset that got us into war
2) Never have fear be the director of diplomatic policies
3) Stated then and states now that the US and President Obama come from Unequivical support for security for the state of Israel
4) That Top foreign policy would refocus on the tension around nuclear weapons
WHAT the President did: GALVANIZED SUPPORT OF ALL THE NATIONS WHO PARTNERED FOR THIS IRAN DEAL:
The President in last 7 years has focused on these issues, but specific impact has been evident in the systematic mobilization to make sure that Iran does not get a nuclear weapon with major world powers.
Why this is important/why he is convinced that this is not just the best of bad alternatives but a very good deal that we should be proud of –as should the state of Israel.
WHAT THE IRAN DEAL DOES:
Cuts off 4 main pathways for Iran to get a nuclear weapon
For the first ten years, it restricts Iran’s nuclear program so that we know exactly what they’re doing at all times.
Shuts down, reverts production of materials for nuclear power.
Requires REDUCTION by 98% stockpiles of enriched uranium
PROVIDES 24/7 coverage of all their declared centers
For an additional 5 years
Greatly restricts what can be done around nuclear power
Subjects IRAN TO never getting a nuclear weapon
Inspections long after this Presidency, the next and the Presidency that follows
YOU’LL HEAR PEOPLE SAY:
1) “IRAN GETS DOLLARS THAT HAVE BEEN FROZEN OVERSEAS AND THAT WON’T BE GOOD-they will have economic power and abuse that.”
.Economy has been suffering a depression (It will be 2022 before Iran can get back to pre sanctions economy.)
2) WHY those who claim the Iran Deal is a bad deal- are the same people who were opposed to any deal with Iran.
******Tv Ads, same columnists, former administration officials responsible for us getting into the war, who were making exactly the same claims that got us into the Iraqi war.
3)” IRAN IS GOING TO CHEAT”: possible, but deal based on verification not trust.; Iran is an anti theocracy and anti American, anti Israel; they may try to cheat-But Because of the deal we are more effective in catching them than no deal where they are doing whatever they are doing with no accountability or verification possible.
If they are caught cheating, we can unilaterally bring back sanctions in total and full response.
4) THE INSPECTORS MIGHT NOT GET IN THERE FAST ENOUGH. But the way this is set up we can put sanctions back in place unilaterally at will..During the duration of this agreement, hard for them to cheat, we will catch them quickly and we can impose sanctions swiftly.
5) They will Kick out all the inspectors in 15 years-and have greater enrichment capacity
The PROBLEM WITH THAT THINKING: WE ARE BETTER OFF RATHER THAN HAVING TO RESORT TO FORCE IN SIX MONTHS OR THREE MONTHS OR A YEAR TO 15 YEARS FROM NOW BECAUSE WE HAVE ESTABLISHED VERIFICATION AND INSPECTION ROUTINE. ANY PRESIDENT WILL BE IN A BETTER PLACE TO HANDLE OUTCOME OF THE IRAN DEAL.
6) Iran gets money-will spend on military; IRAN has military budge of $15 Bill-ours is $500 Billion. We are going to be able to deter Iran from attacking anyone else.
But there is a danger in no deal.
7) The deal will Legitamize Iran-limit our responses:
BUT IN FACT THERE IS NOTHING IN THIS DEAL THAT PREVENTS US FROM CONFRONTING IRAN ON NON NUCLEAR BEHAVIOR.
FOR EXAMPLE, IF THEY CONTINUE TO INCREASE OR EXCEED THEIR THREATS TO ISRAEL, IT WILL BE DEALT WITH. WE HAVE TO IMPROVE THE INTELLIGENCE; IRAN HAS BEEN ABLE TO GET AROUND WHAT IS IN PLACE, WE HAVE TO UP OUR GAME.
EVERY ARUGMENT THAT HAS BEEN PUT FORWARD AGAINST THIS DEAL IS EITHER INACCURATE OR PRESUPPOSES THAT WHAT WE SHOULD BE DOING IF WE WERE GOING TO NEGOTIATE FOR A “BETTER DEAL.”
IN THE REAL WORLD THERE IS NO EXPERT THAT WOULD HAVE IRAN AGREE TO DO THAT.
THIS IS A DEAL THAT GETS THE JOB DONE.
8) BETTER DEAL? What do they mean? Iran would not do that –if we were prepared to go to war.
9)THE False choice: we could just continue till they ask for relief from sanctions.
Reason WE HAVE THE DEAL AND IT IS effective is we have the entire world behind us-the President told them we were sincere about a diplomatic solution. Because of their belief in our sincerity even at the cost of Iranian oil by some of the nations, they made the deal with the understanding that we would be negotiating in good faith. It isn’t our deal with Iran, it is with many powerful nations that JOINED IN THIS NEGOTIATION OF THE IRAN DEAL. World has concluded we have done the deal. The British, French, Germans, Japanese, Australians and also EVEN OUR adversaries China and Russia consider the deal done.
As a consequence, if congress attempts to deny Iran Deal and we now reject it, with 90% nuclear scientists and former ambassadors support-who know what is at stake, as well as the secretary of energy, there will be significant loss for the US in the world court of public opinion. How we will be viewed as a nation will be impacted.
If in the fact of that consensus we have a congress who for political reasons rejects that deal we could find ourselves in 3 months, 6 months or a year, facing force with Iran and having lost face and credibility to the worldwide community.
Stakes could not be higher. We have to get more active and loud and involved and informed and start making our voices heard with respect to congress. The lobbying against the Iran Deal that is taking place on the other side is relentless, well financed and committed to destroying the Iran Deal. In the absence of our voices, we’re going to see the same array of forces and mind set that got us into this war take us back on the path to military conflict.
The President feels the facts are on our side, and has never been more certain about the validity of the Iran Deal; that is perspective of world leaders as well. But the politics in congress are going to be tough unless we get vocal and active.
The Iraq war had everybody got real active when those of us who were against the war engaged. Now we have a president that is on our side and makes sure we are promoting non proliferation of nuclear weapons as well as support for Israel.
This opportunity could slip away. Right now the opponents of this deal have been flooding congressional offices. “The truth will out as long we guys will carry it,” was the belief from the President that ended the phone call.
MY TAKE AWAY************************************************:
This is the time to step in and contact congress and rattle the cages of those claiming inaccurate statements, making claims designed to arouse fear and suspicion. Get to the facts, get to the realities: Put them out as you understand them. Allow for dialogue.
There is no way that no deal with Iran is better than a deal that is based on verification and inspections; this is not ours deal alone, but from many nations.
Correcting misinformation, putting out the accurate statements you can find in the press, in the media and support not just the President, Secretary of State John Kerry but the world wide platform that brought the possibility of this deal to reality. We cannot afford politics in our congress at this crucial time. We the citizens who call our representatives in congress can make a difference, and we must.